Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Warriors · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Shatin 0-1 Warriors
Original prediction
Warriors
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 23.43 | 3.9% | 30.3% | 26.4 pts |
| Draw | 10.76 | 8.5% | 22.5% | 14.0 pts |
| Away | 1.04 | 87.6% | 47.2% | -40.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.04 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-40.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Warriors
Probability
47.2%
Model confidence
47.2%
Warriors has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ShatinLLLW
GF 5 · GA 12 · avg 1.25/3.00
BTTS 2/4O2.5 4/4
WarriorsWWWWL
GF 13 · GA 4 · avg 2.60/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 5/5
ShatinWarriors
50.0Attack33.3
50.0Defence66.7
50.0Form50.0
50.0Power53.0
1.82xG1.57