Shatinvs
Hong Kong FC
COMPLETEDHong-Kong · League Cup · 10/1/2026, 11:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Shatin · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Shatin 2-2 Hong Kong FC
Original prediction
Shatin
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 12 September 2026 at 21:29 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.90 | 48.0% | 46.1% | -1.9 pts |
| Draw | 4.01 | 22.7% | 25.6% | 2.9 pts |
| Away | 3.11 | 29.3% | 28.3% | -1.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.01 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–08%
Predicted outcome
Shatin
Probability
46.1%
Model confidence
46.1%
Shatin has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ShatinLLLLW
GF 5 · GA 13 · avg 1.00/2.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 4/5
Hong Kong FCLWLLD
GF 6 · GA 12 · avg 1.20/2.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
ShatinHong Kong FC
50.0Attack0.0
50.0Defence0.0
50.0Form0.0
50.0Power7.0
2.10xG1.25