Shatinvs
Hong Kong FC
COMPLETEDHong-Kong · Premier League · 10/18/2026, 8:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Shatin · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (9%), 2-1 (9%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Shatin 2-2 Hong Kong FC
Original prediction
Shatin
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 21 September 2026 at 00:26 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.89 | 47.9% | 45.0% | -2.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.81 | 23.7% | 23.6% | -0.2 pts |
| Away | 3.19 | 28.4% | 31.4% | 3.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.81 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–19%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
Shatin
Probability
45.0%
Model confidence
45.0%
Shatin has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 14 · avg 0.80/2.80
GF 5 · GA 14 · avg 1.00/2.80