SHANGHAI SIPGvs
Beijing Guoan
COMPLETEDChina · Super League · 9/5/2026, 11:35:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Beijing Guoan · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
SHANGHAI SIPG 0-0 Beijing Guoan
Original prediction
Beijing Guoan
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:14 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.16 | 42.9% | 37.7% | -5.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.82 | 24.3% | 23.7% | -0.6 pts |
| Away | 2.82 | 32.9% | 38.6% | 5.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.82 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Beijing Guoan
Probability
38.6%
Model confidence
38.6%
Beijing Guoan has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 4 · avg 2.00/0.80
GF 14 · GA 7 · avg 2.80/1.40