Shanghai Shenhuavs
Shandong Luneng
COMPLETEDChina · Super League · 8/28/2026, 11:35:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Shanghai Shenhua · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (8%), 2-2 (7%), 1-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Shanghai Shenhua 2-3 Shandong Luneng
Original prediction
Shanghai Shenhua
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:50 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.62 | 57.4% | 51.4% | -6.0 pts |
| Draw | 4.51 | 20.6% | 19.0% | -1.6 pts |
| Away | 4.22 | 22.0% | 29.6% | 7.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-6.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–18%
- 2.2–27%
- 3.1–17%
Predicted outcome
Shanghai Shenhua
Probability
51.4%
Model confidence
51.4%
Shanghai Shenhua has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 11 · avg 2.20/2.20
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20