FA CupFA Cup
Tuesday, 21 July 2026Last updated 14:59
Shanghai Shenhua

Shanghai Shenhua

Home
W
41
Full time
Qingdao Jonoon

Qingdao Jonoon

Away
LLD
Shanghai Stadium
GoalVio prediction
65% confidence
Shanghai Shenhua(65%)
Most likely exact score2-1
Win probability
Shanghai Shenhua
65%
Draw
19%
Qingdao Jonoon
16%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Attack
Shanghai Shenhua
94
Qingdao Jonoon
47
Defence
Shanghai Shenhua
27
Qingdao Jonoon
6
Momentum
Shanghai Shenhua
100
Qingdao Jonoon
11
Danger (xG)
Shanghai Shenhua
2.70
Qingdao Jonoon
0.30
Both teams to score
Yes
Over 2.5 goals
Yes
xG for (Shanghai Shenhua)
2.70
avg per match
xG for (Qingdao Jonoon)
0.30
avg per match
xG against (Shanghai Shenhua)
1.80
avg per match
xG against (Qingdao Jonoon)
0.30
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
Shanghai ShenhuaShanghai Shenhua
WWL
Qingdao JonoonQingdao Jonoon
LLDWL

Probability breakdown

65% confidence
Shanghai Shenhua65%
Draw19%
Qingdao Jonoon16%

Shanghai Shenhua leads with 65% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

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Analysis

Match insights

Shanghai Shenhua head into this in FA Cup fixture at Shanghai Stadium in mixed form (W), while Qingdao Jonoon arrive in mixed form (LLD). Shanghai Shenhua have a 100% win rate across their last 1 matches, compared to 0% for Qingdao Jonoon over 3 games.

The model rates Shanghai Shenhua's attack at 94/100 against a 6/100 Qingdao Jonoon defence, and Qingdao Jonoon's attack at 47/100 against a 27/100 Shanghai Shenhua backline — a balanced matchup with neither side holding a clear structural edge.

Shanghai Shenhua have won all 1 of their recent home fixtures, averaging 3.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per game at home. Qingdao Jonoon have found it tough away from home, failing to win any of their last 2 away matches. They average 1.5 goals scored and 4.0 conceded per away game.

Qingdao Jonoon have generated 0.00 xG per game recently while conceding 0.00 xG per match, overperforming their xG in 67% of recent matches.

There is no head-to-head data between Shanghai Shenhua and Qingdao Jonoon in the engine.

The GoalVio engine projects Shanghai Shenhua to win with 65% confidence. and a most likely scoreline of 2-1. Win probabilities: Shanghai Shenhua 6493%, Draw 1888%, Qingdao Jonoon 1619%. BTTS: Yes, Over 2.5: Yes.

Recent form

Shanghai Shenhua

Shanghai Shenhua

W
vs Hangzhou Greentown
5 Jul 2026
32
W
@ Dalian Zhixing
28 Jun 2026
41
L
@ Yunnan Yukun
16 May 2026
01
Qingdao Jonoon

Qingdao Jonoon

L
@ Henan Jianye
17 Jul 2026
15
xG 0.0
L
@ Hangzhou Greentown
14 Jul 2026
23
xG 0.0
D
vs Chengdu Better City
5 Jul 2026
11
W
vs Yunnan Yukun
26 Jun 2026
42
L
vs Chongqing Tongliang Long
24 May 2026
01
xG 0.0

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Shanghai Shenhua vs Qingdao Jonoon?

GoalVio's model predicts Shanghai Shenhua to win with 65% confidence.

What is the predicted score for Shanghai Shenhua vs Qingdao Jonoon?

The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 2-1.

Will both teams score in Shanghai Shenhua vs Qingdao Jonoon?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: Yes — both teams are expected to score.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Shanghai Shenhua vs Qingdao Jonoon?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: Yes.

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About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
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Responsible gambling: Predictions are generated by a statistical model for informational purposes only. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results. Learn more