Shandong Lunengvs
SHANGHAI SIPG
COMPLETEDChina · FA Cup · 9/1/2026, 11:35:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Shandong Luneng · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Shandong Luneng 0-3 SHANGHAI SIPG
Original prediction
Shandong Luneng
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.34 | 39.1% | 41.6% | 2.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.64 | 25.1% | 26.6% | 1.5 pts |
| Away | 2.56 | 35.8% | 31.8% | -4.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Shandong Luneng
Probability
41.6%
Model confidence
41.6%
Shandong Luneng has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20
GF 10 · GA 6 · avg 2.00/1.20