Shandong Lunengvs
Hangzhou Greentown
COMPLETEDChina · Super League · 10/17/2026, 12:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Shandong Luneng · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (9%), 1-1 (8%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Shandong Luneng 5-0 Hangzhou Greentown
Original prediction
Shandong Luneng
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 12:23 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.71 | 54.0% | 51.2% | -2.8 pts |
| Draw | 4.32 | 21.4% | 19.6% | -1.8 pts |
| Away | 3.77 | 24.6% | 29.2% | 4.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.71 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–19%
- 2.1–18%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
Shandong Luneng
Probability
51.2%
Model confidence
51.2%
Shandong Luneng has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 9 · avg 1.00/1.80
GF 14 · GA 8 · avg 2.80/1.60