GGOALVIO

China · Super League · 5/16/2026, 11:35:00 AM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Shandong Luneng · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1

Mediumconfidence

Shandong Luneng are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WWDLW), averaging 2.00 scored and 1.60 conceded, while Chongqing Tongliang Long are 1W-3D-1L in their last 5 (DDLDW), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 9 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Shandong Luneng hold a 5.5-point power-rating edge (55.0 v 49.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 13.2% in the Super League, while Shandong Luneng holds the strongest overall chance at 47% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 54% BTTS chance and 49% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Shandong Luneng

Probability

47.4%

Model confidence

13.2%

Shandong Luneng has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Shandong LunengWWDLW

GF 10 · GA 8 · avg 2.00/1.60

BTTS 5/5O2.5 4/5
Chongqing Tongliang LongDDLDW

GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20

BTTS 4/5O2.5 2/5
Shandong LunengChongqing Tongliang Long
60.9Attack36.2
44.9Defence60.9
56.5Form43.5
55.0Power49.5
1.58xG1.08
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