Division 1
Shamiya
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Yarmouk
AwayThe model sees this as an open match — all three outcomes are within a tight range.
The model projects 1.15 xG for Shamiya and 3.25 xG for Yarmouk — meaningful and strong attacking threat respectively. Both sides are generating enough chance quality to make scoring a realistic expectation, which is the primary driver of the BTTS projection.The projected 1-3 scoreline reflects both teams contributing to the goal tally. Even with Shamiya holding the stronger xG profile, the opposition's strong attacking output is sufficient to keep BTTS in play.Both sides have shown consistent scoring form recently — Shamiya finding the net in 8 of 10 matches and Yarmouk in 9 of 10. That scoring reliability aligns with the xG projection and strengthens the BTTS case.
The model projects a combined xG of 4.40 — high attacking volume for this fixture. A combined xG above 2.5 is the model's primary signal that the match is likely to produce more than two goals, and this fixture clears that threshold.The projected 1-3 scoreline clears the 2.5-goal threshold — 4 goals in the most likely outcome. With both sides generating high xG, multiple scoreline combinations in the probability grid exceed 2.5 goals.
Probability breakdown
Yarmouk leads with 36% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.
Yarmouk Backed to Win — Model Projects 0-1
Shamiya host Yarmouk in Division 1. Shamiya have recorded LLWDWL in recent matches while Yarmouk arrive with a run of WDLDLW.
Key factors
Why GoalVio backs this
Yarmouk are generating a dominant xG advantage — 3.25 projected against 1.15 for Shamiya. xG measures the quality of chances created, not just shots. A gap of 2.10 is the clearest signal in the model that Yarmouk are the materially more dangerous side in this fixture.
Biggest risk: Yarmouk's projection depends on converting chances into goals. If Shamiya defend deep, absorb pressure, and hit on the counter, the match could end differently than the model projects — particularly if Yarmouk fail to score in the first half.
Risk factors
- ⚠Yarmouk have been conceding 1.53 goals per game — their defence could be exposed.
- ⚠With both teams expected to score, the game could remain open until the final whistle — late goals are a real possibility.
- ⚠Live conditions — weather, team news, and in-game momentum — can always override statistical projections.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Shamiya vs Yarmouk?
GoalVio's model predicts Yarmouk to win with 37% confidence.
What is the predicted score for Shamiya vs Yarmouk?
The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 0-1.
Will both teams score in Shamiya vs Yarmouk?
GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: No — at least one team is expected to keep a clean sheet.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Shamiya vs Yarmouk?
GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: No — fewer than 3 goals are expected.