GGOALVIO

Kazakhstan · 1. Division · 5/1/2026, 10:00:00 AM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Shakhter Karagandy · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 4-0

Highconfidence

Shakhter Karagandy are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WWLDL), averaging 2.80 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Tobol 2 are 0W-1D-2L in their last 3 (LLD), averaging 1.00 scored and 2.33 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 8 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Shakhter Karagandy hold a 58.8-point power-rating edge (87.7 v 28.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 4-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 90.0% in the 1. Division, while Shakhter Karagandy holds the strongest overall chance at 90% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 51% BTTS chance and 85% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Shakhter Karagandy

Probability

90.0%

Model confidence

90.0%

Shakhter Karagandy has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Shakhter KaragandyWWLDL

GF 14 · GA 6 · avg 2.80/1.20

BTTS 2/5O2.5 4/5
Tobol 2LLD

GF 3 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/2.33

BTTS 2/3O2.5 2/3
Shakhter KaragandyTobol 2
94.4Attack51.9
87.0Defence11.1
90.7Form18.5
87.7Power28.9
4.50xG0.73
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