Shakhtar Donetskvs
Kolos Kovalivka
COMPLETEDUkraine · Premier League · 10/17/2026, 3:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Shakhtar Donetsk · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Shakhtar Donetsk 2-0 Kolos Kovalivka, with an exact score probability of 17%.
Prediction record
Final result
Shakhtar Donetsk 2-1 Kolos Kovalivka
Original prediction
Shakhtar Donetsk
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 20:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.25 | 73.7% | 71.5% | -2.3 pts |
| Draw | 5.36 | 17.1% | 18.3% | 1.2 pts |
| Away | 10.04 | 9.2% | 10.2% | 1.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.25 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.3 pts
Projected Score
Shakhtar Donetsk 2–0 Kolos Kovalivka
Exact score probability: 17%
Predicted outcome
Shakhtar Donetsk
Probability
71.5%
Model confidence
71.5%
Shakhtar Donetsk has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 15 · GA 1 · avg 3.00/0.20
GF 9 · GA 10 · avg 1.80/2.00