Shakhtar Donetskvs
Dynamo Kyiv
COMPLETEDUkraine · Cup · 10/27/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Shakhtar Donetsk · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Shakhtar Donetsk 3-0 Dynamo Kyiv
Original prediction
Shakhtar Donetsk
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 2 October 2026 at 12:50 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.75 | 52.7% | 44.0% | -8.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.60 | 25.6% | 27.5% | 1.9 pts |
| Away | 4.25 | 21.7% | 28.4% | 6.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.75 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-8.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Shakhtar Donetsk
Probability
44.0%
Model confidence
44.0%
Shakhtar Donetsk has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 3 · avg 1.60/0.60
GF 10 · GA 4 · avg 2.00/0.80