Shakhtar Donetskvs
Chornomorets
COMPLETEDUkraine · Premier League · 9/14/2026, 3:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Shakhtar Donetsk · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (12%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Shakhtar Donetsk 2-0 Chornomorets
Original prediction
Shakhtar Donetsk
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:09 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.13 | 82.1% | 52.9% | -29.2 pts |
| Draw | 7.19 | 12.9% | 24.5% | 11.7 pts |
| Away | 18.38 | 5.0% | 22.6% | 17.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.13 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-29.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–012%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
Shakhtar Donetsk
Probability
52.9%
Model confidence
52.9%
Shakhtar Donetsk has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 4 · avg 1.20/0.80
GF 2 · GA 5 · avg 0.40/1.00