Shakhtar Donetskvs
AEK Athens FC
COMPLETEDWorld · UEFA Champions League · 10/14/2026, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
AEK Athens FC · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (9%), 0-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Shakhtar Donetsk 3-1 AEK Athens FC
Original prediction
AEK Athens FC
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 18:17 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.68 | 35.6% | 33.1% | -2.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.41 | 28.0% | 28.0% | 0.0 pts |
| Away | 2.61 | 36.5% | 38.9% | 2.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.0–18%
Predicted outcome
AEK Athens FC
Probability
38.9%
Model confidence
38.9%
AEK Athens FC has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 14 · GA 0 · avg 2.80/0.00
GF 15 · GA 3 · avg 3.00/0.60