SG Sonnenhof Grossaspachvs
FC Augsburg
COMPLETEDGermany · DFB Pokal · 10/27/2026, 5:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
FC Augsburg · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (8%), 1-2 (8%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 2-4 FC Augsburg
Original prediction
FC Augsburg
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 06:37 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 9.27 | 10.0% | 28.0% | 18.0 pts |
| Draw | 6.11 | 15.2% | 23.0% | 7.8 pts |
| Away | 1.24 | 74.8% | 49.0% | -25.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.24 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-25.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–18%
- 2.1–28%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
FC Augsburg
Probability
49.0%
Model confidence
49.0%
FC Augsburg has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 17 · avg 1.60/3.40
GF 10 · GA 12 · avg 2.00/2.40