Seychellesvs
Sri Lanka
COMPLETEDWorld · Friendlies · 9/30/2026, 1:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sri Lanka · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Seychelles 0-2 Sri Lanka
Original prediction
Sri Lanka
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 19 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.33 | 27.5% | 27.6% | 0.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.27 | 28.0% | 27.2% | -0.8 pts |
| Away | 2.06 | 44.5% | 45.2% | 0.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.06 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–29%
Predicted outcome
Sri Lanka
Probability
45.2%
Model confidence
45.2%
Sri Lanka has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 6 · avg 0.40/1.20
GF 9 · GA 5 · avg 1.80/1.00