Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sevilla W · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (11%), 1-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Sevilla W 0-1 Eibar W
Original prediction
Sevilla W
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 06:49 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.74 | 51.7% | 40.3% | -11.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.23 | 27.8% | 28.3% | 0.6 pts |
| Away | 4.37 | 20.5% | 31.4% | 10.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-11.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–011%
- 3.1–010%
Predicted outcome
Sevilla W
Probability
40.3%
Model confidence
40.3%
Sevilla W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Sevilla WWLLWD
GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
Eibar WWLDWW
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
Sevilla WEibar W
33.3Attack25.0
50.0Defence66.7
50.0Form58.3
46.3Power53.0
1.17xG1.13