Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sevilla · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Sevilla 1-0 Valencia
Original prediction
Sevilla
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.05 | 46.4% | 54.5% | 8.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.24 | 29.4% | 24.2% | -5.1 pts |
| Away | 3.92 | 24.3% | 21.2% | -3.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.05 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
8.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–011%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.1–110%
Predicted outcome
Sevilla
Probability
54.5%
Model confidence
54.5%
Sevilla has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
SevillaDLWWL
GF 8 · GA 8 · avg 1.60/1.60
BTTS 5/5O2.5 4/5
ValenciaLLLDL
GF 1 · GA 10 · avg 0.20/2.00
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
SevillaValencia
58.3Attack8.3
50.0Defence25.0
58.3Form8.3
57.5Power17.9
2.22xG0.94