Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sevilla · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (10%), 2-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Sevilla 2-0 Osasuna
Original prediction
Sevilla
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 25 September 2026 at 00:49 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.87 | 51.2% | 52.6% | 1.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.43 | 27.9% | 24.3% | -3.6 pts |
| Away | 4.60 | 20.8% | 23.1% | 2.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.87 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–110%
- 2.1–110%
- 3.2–08%
Predicted outcome
Sevilla
Probability
52.6%
Model confidence
52.6%
Sevilla has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
SevillaLDLLW
GF 7 · GA 13 · avg 1.40/2.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
OsasunaWLDLL
GF 5 · GA 12 · avg 1.00/2.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
SevillaOsasuna
51.9Attack37.0
40.7Defence33.3
51.9Form40.7
50.7Power39.8
2.21xG1.18