Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Barcelona · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (9%), 0-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Sevilla 1-3 Barcelona
Original prediction
Barcelona
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:11 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 10.40 | 9.2% | 24.8% | 15.7 pts |
| Draw | 6.57 | 14.5% | 22.8% | 8.3 pts |
| Away | 1.25 | 76.3% | 52.4% | -23.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.25 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-23.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.0–19%
Predicted outcome
Barcelona
Probability
52.4%
Model confidence
52.4%
Barcelona has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
SevillaWWDLW
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
BarcelonaWWWWW
GF 26 · GA 7 · avg 5.20/1.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 5/5
SevillaBarcelona
50.0Attack100.0
66.7Defence66.7
72.2Form100.0
65.5Power88.9
1.16xG1.53