Sevillavs
Atletico Madrid
COMPLETEDSpain · La Liga · 8/29/2026, 7:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sevilla · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Sevilla 1-3 Atletico Madrid
Original prediction
Sevilla
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 3.50+| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.91 | 24.3% | 38.1% | 13.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.39 | 28.1% | 27.4% | -0.7 pts |
| Away | 2.00 | 47.5% | 34.5% | -13.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
13.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Sevilla
Probability
38.1%
Model confidence
38.1%
Sevilla has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
SevillaWWLWW
GF 9 · GA 5 · avg 1.80/1.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
Atletico MadridDWWLL
GF 8 · GA 8 · avg 1.60/1.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
SevillaAtletico Madrid
83.3Attack66.7
66.7Defence66.7
100.0Form66.7
86.5Power68.0
1.60xG1.16