Sevillavs
Aston Villa
COMPLETEDWorld · Friendlies Clubs · 10/2/2026, 6:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Aston Villa · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Sevilla 1-3 Aston Villa
Original prediction
Aston Villa
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 29 September 2026 at 09:24 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.89 | 31.7% | 33.3% | 1.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.48 | 26.4% | 26.7% | 0.3 pts |
| Away | 2.18 | 41.9% | 40.1% | -1.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.18 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–17%
Predicted outcome
Aston Villa
Probability
40.1%
Model confidence
40.1%
Aston Villa has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40
GF 10 · GA 7 · avg 2.00/1.40