Sevilla Atleticovs
Badajoz
COMPLETEDSpain · Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 · 10/4/2026, 9:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sevilla Atletico · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Sevilla Atletico 1-0 Badajoz, with an exact score probability of 20%.
Prediction record
Final result
Sevilla Atletico 2-2 Badajoz
Original prediction
Sevilla Atletico
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 10 September 2026 at 17:27 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.99 | 45.4% | 49.9% | 4.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.15 | 28.7% | 28.2% | -0.5 pts |
| Away | 3.48 | 26.0% | 21.9% | -4.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.15 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.5 pts
Projected Score
Sevilla Atletico 1–0 Badajoz
Exact score probability: 20%
Predicted outcome
Sevilla Atletico
Probability
49.9%
Model confidence
49.9%
Sevilla Atletico has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00
GF 10 · GA 3 · avg 2.00/0.60