Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Jadran LP · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-1 (14%), 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Sesvete 1-1 Jadran LP
Original prediction
Jadran LP
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 17:32 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.19 | 41.2% | 31.2% | -9.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.03 | 29.8% | 29.6% | -0.2 pts |
| Away | 3.12 | 29.0% | 39.2% | 10.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.03 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
10.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–114%
- 2.1–114%
- 3.0–012%
Predicted outcome
Jadran LP
Probability
39.2%
Model confidence
39.2%
Jadran LP has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
SesveteLLWWL
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
Jadran LPLWWWL
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
SesveteJadran LP
33.3Attack57.1
55.6Defence66.7
33.3Form66.7
42.8Power65.3
0.83xG1.40