Sestri Levantevs
Pistoiese
COMPLETEDItaly · Coppa Italia Serie D · 10/7/2026, 1:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Pistoiese · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (10%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Sestri Levante 1-0 Pistoiese
Original prediction
Pistoiese
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 18 September 2026 at 16:09 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 5.26 | 17.1% | 32.6% | 15.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.63 | 24.8% | 28.3% | 3.5 pts |
| Away | 1.54 | 58.2% | 39.1% | -19.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-19.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–010%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
Pistoiese
Probability
39.1%
Model confidence
39.1%
Pistoiese has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 6 · avg 2.00/1.20
GF 5 · GA 0 · avg 1.00/0.00