Sestri Levantevs
Celle Varazze
COMPLETEDItaly · Serie D - Girone A · 10/11/2026, 1:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sestri Levante · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Sestri Levante 1-1 Celle Varazze
Original prediction
Sestri Levante
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 11 October 2026 at 02:47 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.60 | 55.5% | 42.5% | -13.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.46 | 25.8% | 28.1% | 2.3 pts |
| Away | 4.74 | 18.8% | 29.4% | 10.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.46 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-13.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Sestri Levante
Probability
42.5%
Model confidence
42.5%
Sestri Levante has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 5 · avg 1.80/1.00
GF 1 · GA 6 · avg 0.33/2.00