Sestao Rivervs
Salamanca UDS
COMPLETEDSpain · Copa Federacion · 10/14/2026, 5:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sestao River · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Sestao River 3-1 Salamanca UDS
Original prediction
Sestao River
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 5 October 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.71 | 53.1% | 46.2% | -6.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.26 | 27.8% | 25.9% | -1.9 pts |
| Away | 4.72 | 19.1% | 27.9% | 8.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.71 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-6.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–27%
Predicted outcome
Sestao River
Probability
46.2%
Model confidence
46.2%
Sestao River has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 4 · avg 1.60/0.80
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20