GGOALVIO

Spain · Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · 9/3/2023, 6:30:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0

Highconfidence

Sestao River are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (DLWLL), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Ponferradina are 4W-1D-0L in their last 5 (WWWDW), averaging 1.60 scored and 0.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 10 games and 2 passed 2.5 goals, and Ponferradina hold a 12.4-point power-rating edge (45.3 v 57.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 46.7% in the Primera División RFEF - Group 1, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 47% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 22% BTTS chance and 14% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Draw

Probability

46.7%

Model confidence

46.7%

Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Sestao RiverDLWLL

GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20

BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
PonferradinaWWWDW

GF 8 · GA 2 · avg 1.60/0.40

BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
Sestao RiverPonferradina
32.5Attack33.3
57.9Defence77.2
39.5Form56.1
45.3Power57.7
0.48xG0.80
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