Sestao Rivervs
Atlético Astorga
COMPLETEDSpain · Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 · 9/26/2026, 4:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sestao River · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (9%), 1-2 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Sestao River 2-0 Atlético Astorga
Original prediction
Sestao River
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 10 September 2026 at 17:24 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.72 | 51.9% | 37.1% | -14.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.31 | 27.0% | 28.3% | 1.3 pts |
| Away | 4.23 | 21.1% | 34.6% | 13.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.72 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-14.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–19%
- 3.1–29%
Predicted outcome
Sestao River
Probability
37.1%
Model confidence
37.1%
Sestao River has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00