Sestao Rivervs
Arosa
COMPLETEDSpain · Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 · 10/24/2026, 4:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sestao River · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (12%), 1-1 (11%), 1-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Sestao River 1-0 Arosa
Original prediction
Sestao River
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 7 October 2026 at 19:46 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.44 | 62.8% | 49.9% | -13.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.98 | 22.8% | 26.8% | 4.0 pts |
| Away | 6.29 | 14.4% | 23.4% | 9.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.44 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-13.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–012%
- 2.1–111%
- 3.1–011%
Predicted outcome
Sestao River
Probability
49.9%
Model confidence
49.9%
Sestao River has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 3 · avg 2.00/0.60
GF 10 · GA 10 · avg 2.00/2.00