Serra TalhadavsEstrela do Norte

Serra Talhada are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WWWDL), averaging 2.40 scored and 0.60 conceded, while Estrela do Norte are 2W-0D-1L in their last 3 (WWL), averaging 2.00 scored and 0.67 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 8 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Serra Talhada hold a 3.1-point power-rating edge (86.1 v 83.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 61.6% in the Capixaba B, while Serra Talhada holds the strongest overall chance at 62% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 56% BTTS chance and 60% for over 2.5 goals.