Serra Brancavs
Lagarto
COMPLETEDBrazil · Serie D · 5/9/2026, 7:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Serra Branca · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-0
Serra Branca are 2W-3D-0L in their last 5 (WDWDD), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Lagarto are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LLLWD), averaging 1.80 scored and 2.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 9 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Serra Branca hold an 11.0-point power-rating edge (57.4 v 46.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 18.6% in the Serie D, while Serra Branca holds the strongest overall chance at 54% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 34% BTTS chance and 30% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Serra Branca
Probability
54.3%
Model confidence
18.6%
Serra Branca has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 5 · avg 1.80/1.00
GF 9 · GA 12 · avg 1.80/2.40