Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Treze · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Sergipe are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (DWWWL), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Treze are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WWDWL), averaging 2.40 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 8 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Treze hold a 6.5-point power-rating edge (51.1 v 57.6). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 35.2% in the Serie D, while Treze holds the strongest overall chance at 35% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 48% BTTS chance and 41% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Treze
Probability
35.2%
Model confidence
35.2%
Treze has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20
GF 12 · GA 8 · avg 2.40/1.60