Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sergipe · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Sergipe are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WWLWD), averaging 2.00 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Retrô are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LLWDL), averaging 1.40 scored and 2.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 9 of those 10 games and 9 passed 2.5 goals, and Sergipe hold a 5.0-point power-rating edge (51.1 v 46.1). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 44.3% in the Serie D, while Sergipe holds the strongest overall chance at 44% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 49% BTTS chance and 43% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Sergipe
Probability
44.3%
Model confidence
44.3%
Sergipe has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 7 · avg 2.00/1.40
GF 7 · GA 12 · avg 1.40/2.40