Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sergipe · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Sergipe are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LWDLW), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.60 conceded, while Lagarto are 1W-3D-1L in their last 5 (LWDDD), averaging 2.00 scored and 2.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 10 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Sergipe hold a 4.7-point power-rating edge (51.1 v 46.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 13.8% in the Serie D, while Sergipe holds the strongest overall chance at 48% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 48% BTTS chance and 42% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Sergipe
Probability
47.5%
Model confidence
13.8%
Sergipe has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60
GF 10 · GA 10 · avg 2.00/2.00