Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sergipe · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-0
Sergipe are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (DLWWD), averaging 1.00 scored and 0.80 conceded, while Decisão are 1W-2D-0L in their last 3 (DWD), averaging 0.67 scored and 0.33 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 8 games and 2 passed 2.5 goals, and Sergipe hold a 13.6-point power-rating edge (51.1 v 37.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 14.1% in the Serie D, while Sergipe holds the strongest overall chance at 59% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 43% BTTS chance and 43% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Sergipe
Probability
58.9%
Model confidence
14.1%
Sergipe has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 4 · avg 1.00/0.80
GF 2 · GA 1 · avg 0.67/0.33