World · World Cup - Women - Qualification Europe · 10/13/2026, 3:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Finland W · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-3 (11%), 0-4 (11%), 1-3 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Serbia W 1-3 Finland W
Original prediction
Finland W
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 18 September 2026 at 16:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 5.51 | 16.3% | 20.4% | 4.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.85 | 23.4% | 23.3% | -0.0 pts |
| Away | 1.49 | 60.3% | 56.3% | -4.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.49 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–311%
- 2.0–411%
- 3.1–39%
Predicted outcome
Finland W
Probability
56.3%
Model confidence
56.3%
Finland W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 17 · avg 0.40/3.40
GF 15 · GA 4 · avg 3.00/0.80