Serbiavs
Netherlands
COMPLETEDWorld · UEFA Nations League · 9/27/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Netherlands · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (11%), 0-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Serbia 1-2 Netherlands
Original prediction
Netherlands
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 1 September 2026 at 15:53 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 7.49 | 12.7% | 29.0% | 16.4 pts |
| Draw | 5.01 | 18.9% | 26.8% | 7.9 pts |
| Away | 1.38 | 68.4% | 44.2% | -24.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.38 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-24.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–011%
- 3.0–110%
Predicted outcome
Netherlands
Probability
44.2%
Model confidence
44.2%
Netherlands has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 14 · avg 0.80/2.80
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00