Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Greece · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Serbia 0-0 Greece, with an exact score probability of 21%.
Prediction record
Final result
Serbia 1-2 Greece
Original prediction
Greece
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 1 September 2026 at 15:52 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.81 | 33.8% | 25.2% | -8.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.19 | 29.7% | 30.7% | 0.9 pts |
| Away | 2.60 | 36.5% | 44.1% | 7.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.60 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
7.6 pts
Projected Score
Serbia 0–0 Greece
Exact score probability: 21%
Predicted outcome
Greece
Probability
44.1%
Model confidence
44.1%
Greece has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
SerbiaLLWLW
GF 5 · GA 12 · avg 1.00/2.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 4/5
GreeceLDDLW
GF 6 · GA 4 · avg 1.20/0.80
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
SerbiaGreece
25.0Attack58.3
70.8Defence79.2
41.7Form75.0
47.4Power70.4
0.54xG1.08