Serbia U21vs
Russia U21
COMPLETEDWorld · Friendlies · 10/5/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Russia U21 · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Serbia U21 2-1 Russia U21
Original prediction
Russia U21
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 30 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.78 | 33.1% | 29.3% | -3.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.49 | 26.4% | 26.1% | -0.3 pts |
| Away | 2.28 | 40.5% | 44.6% | 4.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–28%
Predicted outcome
Russia U21
Probability
44.6%
Model confidence
44.6%
Russia U21 has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20
GF 12 · GA 5 · avg 2.40/1.00