Serbia U21vs
Russia U21
COMPLETEDWorld · Friendlies · 10/2/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Serbia U21 · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (12%), 0-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Serbia U21 1-3 Russia U21
Original prediction
Serbia U21
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 30 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.39 | 38.0% | 41.1% | 3.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.38 | 26.9% | 28.4% | 1.5 pts |
| Away | 2.58 | 35.1% | 30.5% | -4.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–012%
- 3.0–011%
Predicted outcome
Serbia U21
Probability
41.1%
Model confidence
41.1%
Serbia U21 has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 3 · avg 1.60/0.60
GF 17 · GA 4 · avg 3.40/0.80