Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Seravezza · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Seravezza 1-1 Gavorrano
Original prediction
Seravezza
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 24 October 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.93 | 46.0% | 40.2% | -5.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.20 | 27.8% | 28.4% | 0.6 pts |
| Away | 3.40 | 26.2% | 31.4% | 5.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.20 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Seravezza
Probability
40.2%
Model confidence
40.2%
Seravezza has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
SeravezzaDWDLW
GF 6 · GA 3 · avg 1.20/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
GavorranoDDDWW
GF 7 · GA 4 · avg 1.40/0.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 1/5
SeravezzaGavorrano
50.0Attack50.0
50.0Defence50.0
50.0Form50.0
50.0Power50.0
1.46xG1.24