Seraing Unitedvs
K. Lierse S.K.
COMPLETEDBelgium · Challenger Pro League · 8/30/2026, 5:15:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Seraing United · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Seraing United 1-1 K. Lierse S.K.
Original prediction
Seraing United
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.21 | 41.6% | 37.0% | -4.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.38 | 27.2% | 27.1% | -0.1 pts |
| Away | 2.94 | 31.2% | 35.9% | 4.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.38 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Seraing United
Probability
37.0%
Model confidence
37.0%
Seraing United has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60
GF 11 · GA 5 · avg 2.20/1.00