Seraing Unitedvs
Excelsior Virton
COMPLETEDBelgium · Challenger Pro League · 10/24/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Excelsior Virton · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-2 (10%), 1-2 (10%), 1-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Seraing United 3-1 Excelsior Virton
Original prediction
Excelsior Virton
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 1 October 2026 at 14:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.33 | 38.9% | 23.8% | -15.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.37 | 26.9% | 22.5% | -4.4 pts |
| Away | 2.65 | 34.2% | 53.6% | 19.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
19.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–210%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.1–110%
Predicted outcome
Excelsior Virton
Probability
53.6%
Model confidence
53.6%
Excelsior Virton has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 12 · avg 2.00/2.40
GF 10 · GA 7 · avg 2.00/1.40