Septemvri Sofiavs
Dunav Ruse
COMPLETEDBulgaria · First League · 10/11/2026, 12:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Septemvri Sofia · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (13%), 1-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Septemvri Sofia 2-3 Dunav Ruse
Original prediction
Septemvri Sofia
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 13 September 2026 at 21:09 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.18 | 42.2% | 37.3% | -4.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.08 | 29.8% | 29.4% | -0.4 pts |
| Away | 3.29 | 28.0% | 33.3% | 5.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–013%
- 3.1–011%
Predicted outcome
Septemvri Sofia
Probability
37.3%
Model confidence
37.3%
Septemvri Sofia has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 9 · avg 1.00/1.80
GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40