Septemvri Sofiavs
Botev Vratsa
COMPLETEDBulgaria · First League · 9/4/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Septemvri Sofia · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Septemvri Sofia 1-0 Botev Vratsa, with an exact score probability of 15%.
Prediction record
Final result
Septemvri Sofia 2-3 Botev Vratsa
Original prediction
Septemvri Sofia
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:10 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.57 | 35.9% | 45.8% | 9.9 pts |
| Draw | 2.92 | 31.6% | 28.5% | -3.0 pts |
| Away | 2.83 | 32.5% | 25.6% | -6.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
9.9 pts
Projected Score
Septemvri Sofia 1–0 Botev Vratsa
Exact score probability: 15%
Predicted outcome
Septemvri Sofia
Probability
45.8%
Model confidence
45.8%
Septemvri Sofia has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 7 · avg 0.60/1.40
GF 2 · GA 12 · avg 0.40/2.40