Septemvri Sofiavs
Botev Plovdiv
COMPLETEDBulgaria · First League · 9/19/2026, 1:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Botev Plovdiv · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (11%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Septemvri Sofia 0-3 Botev Plovdiv
Original prediction
Botev Plovdiv
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 06:55 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.28 | 21.7% | 24.8% | 3.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.50 | 26.5% | 25.2% | -1.3 pts |
| Away | 1.79 | 51.8% | 50.1% | -1.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.79 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–111%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
Botev Plovdiv
Probability
50.1%
Model confidence
50.1%
Botev Plovdiv has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60