Seosan Pioneervs
Geoje Citizen
COMPLETEDSouth-Korea · K4 League · 9/12/2026, 7:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Geoje Citizen · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-2 (9%), 1-3 (9%), 0-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Seosan Pioneer 0-1 Geoje Citizen
Original prediction
Geoje Citizen
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.81 | 31.8% | 19.1% | -12.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.48 | 25.6% | 17.6% | -8.0 pts |
| Away | 2.09 | 42.6% | 63.3% | 20.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.09 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
20.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–29%
- 2.1–39%
- 3.0–27%
Predicted outcome
Geoje Citizen
Probability
63.3%
Model confidence
63.3%
Geoje Citizen has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 9 · avg 1.40/1.80
GF 9 · GA 11 · avg 1.80/2.20