World Cup
Senegal
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Senegal leads with 63% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.
Match insights
Senegal head into this in World Cup fixture at BMO Field struggling for consistency (LWLLW), while Iraq arrive struggling for consistency (LLL). Senegal have a 40% win rate across their last 5 matches, compared to 0% for Iraq over 3 games.
Tactically, this looks like a one-sided contest. Senegal's elite attack (79/100) faces a vulnerable Iraq defence (1/100), while Iraq's attack is up against a leaky Senegal backline. The model sees a clear mismatch in Senegal's favour.
Senegal have won all 1 of their recent home fixtures, averaging 5.0 goals scored and 0.0 conceded per game at home. Iraq have found it tough away from home, failing to win any of their last 2 away matches. They average 0.0 goals scored and 4.0 conceded per away game.
Senegal have generated 2.11 xG per game recently while conceding 1.49 xG per match, overperforming their xG in 75% of recent matches. Iraq have generated 0.47 xG per game recently while conceding 2.77 xG per match.
Senegal have the upper hand in recent meetings, winning 1 of the last 1 encounters, averaging 5.0 goals per game.
The GoalVio engine projects Senegal to win with 61% confidence. and a most likely scoreline of 2-0. Win probabilities: Senegal 6290%, Draw 2110%, Iraq 1600%. BTTS: No, Over 2.5: No.
Head to head
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Senegal
Iraq
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Senegal vs Iraq?
GoalVio's model predicts Senegal to win with 61% confidence.
What is the predicted score for Senegal vs Iraq?
The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 2-0.
Will both teams score in Senegal vs Iraq?
GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: No — at least one team is expected to keep a clean sheet.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Senegal vs Iraq?
GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: No — fewer than 3 goals are expected.